Voting for nominations will take place January 11-16, 2024, with the official Oscar nominations announced on January 23, 2024. Final voting is February 22-27, 2024. Finally, the telecast of the 96th Academy Awards will be broadcast Sunday, March 10 and live on ABC at 8pm ET / 5pm PT. We update the predictions throughout awards season, so keep checking IndieWire for all of our Oscars 2024 picks.
The state of the breed
The 2024 Oscars are shaping up to be a historic year for Indigenous American representation, as “Killers of the Flower Moon” star Lily Gladstone, who is of Blackfeet and Nimíipuu ancestry, would be considered the clear favorite if she were to enter the category Best Actress Competition. Playing Mollie Burkhart, a member of a prominent Osage family, opposite Leonardo DiCaprio in Martin Scorsese’s highly anticipated 2017 adaptation of David Grann’s book, Gladstone’s performance was the one that stood out the most among those who attended the premiere of the film in Cannes.
Regardless of which category she’s running for (there’s a case to be made for Best Actress, but support is more likely), Gladstone is expected to be the first Indigenous American actress ever to be nominated for an Oscar.
Meanwhile, the other big Best Supporting Actress campaign to launch at Cannes is Julianne Moore in “May December,” her latest collaboration with director Todd Haynes. Acquired by Netflix for distribution in the United States, the drama sees the Academy Award winner play a woman who is visited by an actress set to play her in her film about her scandalous affair with her now husband, which began when she was underage. Though Moore has worked extensively with Haynes since their Oscar nominations for his 2002 film “Far From Heaven,” early reviews called “May December” a return to form for both of them.
Unfortunately, the first half of the year didn’t yield many more performances that seem destined for a Supporting Actress nomination. Viola Davis as Michael Jordan’s mother Deloris in “Air” comes closest, as her performance greatly helped the film exceed critical expectations. Hong Chau (“Showing Up”), Anne Hathaway (“Eileen”) and Rachel McAdams (“Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret”) all have a history with this category and have delivered audience-pleasing performances in their new film , but it might not be able to resist the slew of high-profile projects coming this fall.
While we know very little about films like ‘Saltburn’, ‘Nyad’, ‘The Bikeriders’ and ‘The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat’ which are said to have some chances for Best Supporting Actress, we do know that the The original film adaptation of “The Color Purple” had two nominations here, so all eyes are on Danielle Brooks and Taraji P. Henson as Sophia and Shug Avery, to see if they can follow in Oprah Winfrey and Margaret Avery’s footsteps .
Also, while there have been very critical readings of female characters in Christopher Nolan’s past films, “Oppenheimer” actually feels like a great showcase for Emily Blunt and Florence Pugh.
The contenders are listed alphabetically, below. No actor will be considered a favorite until I have seen the film.
Hong Chau (“Introduction”)
Viola Davis (“Aria”)
Lily Gladstone (“The Flower Moon Killers”)
Anne Hathaway (“Eileen”)
Rachel McAdams (“Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret”)
Emily Blunt (“Oppenheimer”)
Danielle Brooks (“The Color Purple”)
Danielle Deadwyler (“The Piano Lesson”)
Taraji P. Henson (“The Color Purple”)
Vanessa Kirby (“Napoleon”)
Patti LuPone (“Beau Is Afraid”)
Lashana Lynch (“Bob Marley: One Love”)
Julianne Moore (“May December”)
Florence Pugh (“Oppenheimer”)
Da’Vine Joy Randolph (“The Holdovers”)
Shots from distance:
Patricia Clarkson (“Monica”)
Beanie Feldstein (“Walking Dolls”)
America Ferrera (“Barbie”)
Sally Hawkins (“Wonka”)
Scarlett Johansson (“Asteroid City”)
Dear Jade Myers (“The Flower Moon Killers”)
Niousha Noor (“The Persian Version”)
Margaret Qualley (“Poor Things”)
Isabella Rossellini (“The Chimera”)
Tilda Swinton (“Problemist”)