A LITTLE PRAYER, David Strathairn, 2023. © Sony Pictures Classics / Courtesy Everett Collection
ManOfTheCenturyMovie Awards Oscars 2024: Predictions for Best Actor

Oscars 2024: Predictions for Best Actor

A LITTLE PRAYER, David Strathairn, 2023. © Sony Pictures Classics / Courtesy Everett Collection

Voting for nominations will take place January 11-16, 2024, with the official Oscar nominations announced on January 23, 2024. Final voting is February 22-27, 2024. Finally, the telecast of the 96th Academy Awards will be broadcast Sunday, March 10 and live on ABC at 8pm ET / 5pm PT. We update the predictions throughout awards season, so keep checking IndieWire for all of our Oscars 2024 picks.

The state of the breed

Opposite, the main topic of conversation on the upcoming Best Actor Oscar race is Leonardo DiCaprio, star of Martin Scorsese’s highly anticipated film “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures). During the film’s lengthy development, it was unclear whether the “The Revenant” actor was starring in the film, or in a supporting role (Jesse Plemons’ FBI Man has a bigger role in David Grann’s bestseller ). But the 2023 Cannes Film Festival premiere made it clear that DiCaprio, the 2016 Best Actor winner, will be a top contender in the category.

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However, there’s plenty to do. On the one hand, the biopics “Maestro” (Netflix), “Rustin” (Netflix), and “Napoleon” (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures) are built around the lead performances of Bradley Cooper, Colman Domingo, and Joaquin Phoenix, respectively. On the other hand, it’s not yet clear where the actors of “Challengers” (MGM), “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures) and “The Bikeriders” (20th Century Studios) will land.

In film festival previews in the first half of the year, Academy Award nominee David Strathairn (“Good Night and Good Luck”) appeared at Sundance in the family drama “A Little Prayer,” which Sony Pictures Classics hopes to follow “Living path that landed Bill Nighy an Oscar nomination. ‘Fair Play’ (Netflix) star Alden Ehrenreich also made waves as one half of January’s fest’s liveliest acquisition. Although ‘Past Lives’ is already a rare independent box office success story, A24’s challenge is to push Korean star Teo Yoo into the awards conversation, but in what category? (His co-star John Magaro is more clearly a contender for supporting actor. )

Did “Everything Everywhere All at Once” make SXSW an Oscar stepping stone an anomaly, or can Amazon Studios follow the trend by pushing “Air” star Matt Damon as a Best Actor contender? (He earned three acting nominations.) The film earned a Metascore of 73 and was a box office disappointment relative to the cost, but it did well with an older (male) demo.

Clearly, the more established Cannes was the biggest springboard for possible award hopefuls like Christian Friedel of “The Zone of Interest” (A24″), Josh O’Connor of “La Chimera” (Neon) and Kôji Yakusho of ” Perfect Days” ” (Neon).

Looking ahead, Cillian Murphy is expected to make her debut playing the lead role in Christopher Nolan’s “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures), a likely summer blockbuster. Given the success of music biopics like “Bohemian Rhapsody” and “Elvis,” Kingsley Ben-Adir also seems poised for a major awards campaign, starring in Reinaldo Marcus Green’s “Bob Marley: One Love” (Paramount Pictures).

With more fall festival news being released each day, former Academy Award nominees Adam Driver and Paul Giamatti will use their respective previews of ‘Ferrari’ (STX Entertainment) and ‘The Holdovers’ (Focus Features) as an opportunity to make another round. But this could be Michael Fassbender’s big year, with Taika Waititi’s (Searchlight Pictures) “Next Goal Wins” already classified as a TIFF audience pleaser and world premiere, and David Fincher’s (Netflix) “The Killer” next.

The contenders are listed alphabetically, below. No actor will be considered a favorite until we have seen the film.

First classified:
Matt Damon (“Aria”)
Leonardo DiCaprio (“The Flower Moon Killers”)
Alden Ehrenreich (“Fair Play”)
David Strathairn (“A Little Prayer”)
Teo Yoo (“Past Lives”)

Kingsley Ben-Adir (“Bob Marley: One Love”)
Gael García Bernal (“Cassardo”)
Bradley Cooper (“Master”)
Colman Domingo (“Rustin”)
Adam Driver (“Ferrari”)
Michael Fassbender (“The Assassin”)
Christian Friedel (“The area of ​​interest”)
Paul Giamatti (“The Holdovers”)
Barry Keoghan (“Saltburn”)
Cillian Murphy (“Oppenheimer”)
Joaquin Phoenix (“Napoleon”)
John David Washington (“The Piano Lesson”)

Shots from distance:
Jay Baruchel (“Blackberry”)
Timothée Chalamet (“Dune: Part 2”)
Paul Dano (“Stupid Money”)
Michael Fassbender (“Next Goal Wins”)
Kelvin Harrison Jr. (“Chevalier”)
Joaquin Phoenix (“Beauty Is Afraid”)
Jonathan Majors (“Dreams Magazine”)
Josh O’Connor (“The Chimera”)
Ben Platt (“Camp Theater”)
Koji Yakusho (“Perfect Days”)

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