We’ll be updating this article throughout the season, along with all of our predictions, so be sure to keep checking IndieWire for the latest news from the 2023 Emmy race. Nomination voting will run June 15-26, with nominees official at the Emmys announced Wednesday, July 12. The Creative Arts Emmy Awards will be presented on two consecutive nights on Saturday, September 9 and Sunday, September 10, with a curated presentation of the ceremonies airing on FXX at a later date. Finally, the 75th Primetime Emmy Awards will take place on Monday, September 18 and will air live on FOX at 8pm ET / 5pm PT.
See our previous thoughts on what to expect at the 75th Primetime Emmy Awards here.
The state of the breed
There’s a level of resignation to the high probability that HBO will at least set the record for most series nominated in a category within a year, given its glut of contenders for outstanding drama series. ‘Succession’ won last year, despite tackling the global phenomenon ‘Squid Game’, while ‘The White Lotus’ won the Emmy for Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series, despite tackling the deluge of high-profile limited series which premiered in spring 2022 Now, the biggest competition between the two hit shows is against each other.
Genre programming has recently performed well in the category, and both the fantasy drama ‘House of the Dragon’ and the post-apocalyptic video game adaptation ‘The Last of Us’ have Emmy-winning producers behind them, but the first two HBO shows have a sense of finality to them (with one ending completely and the other closing the chapter on a beloved character), so a win for ‘Succession’ or ‘The White Lotus’ feels more urgent.
That said, there’s a chance that all the votes for HBO dramas will cancel each other out in some way and make room for another network to win big. “Better Call Saul” is another show in its final Emmy run, earning 46 nominations over five and a half seasons, but no wins. Unfortunately, history shows that the TV Academy far more often chooses to honor the actors rather than the series itself when giving out an Emmy as a parting gift, so AMC faces a steep battle in this category..
The former winner of outstanding drama series ‘The Crown’ (Netflix) and ‘The Handmaid’s Tale’ (Hulu) has a better chance of winning according to statistics, but the specific seasons that are in contention for the award have failed to resonate in no way near the peaks of the shows.
Likewise, ‘Yellowjackets’ (Showtime) was in its sophomore slump according to several critics, but the same could have been said of ‘Ted Lasso’, which won Outstanding Comedy Series for its second season. Based on the many above-the-line nominations the survival series has earned, including two entries in the Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series category, fans of the show who are also Emmy voters are more than likely to show even more love for ‘ Yellowjackets” this time around, making him HBO’s biggest threat.
Current contenders (in alphabetical order):
“Bad Sisters” (Apple TV+)
“Better Call Saul” (AMC)
“The Boys” (Main Video)
“The Crown” (Netflix)
“The Handmaid’s Tale” (Hulu)
“House of the Dragon” (HBO)
“The Last of Us” (HBO)
“The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power” (Prime Video)
“The Mandalorian” (Disney+)
“Star Trek: Picard” (Paramount+)
“The White Lotus” (HBO)
“Yellow Jacket” (Showtime)
More forecasts for the Drama category:
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
To see IndieWire’s full set of predictions for the 75th Emmy Awards click here.
Last year’s winner: “Succession”
Still eligible: YES.
Hot Series: Although “Succession” has won the category for the past two seasons, both “The Crown,” which won the category during the HBO drama’s off-year, and “The White Lotus,” a new entry by category that won the best limited series last year, stands in the way of its three-peat road.
Notable ineligible series: “Severance” (Season 2 was ineligible); “Squid Game” (Season 2 was ineligible); “Bridgerton” (season 3 was ineligible); “Euphoria” (season 3 was ineligible); “The Morning Show” (season 3 was ineligible); “Stranger Things” (season 5 was ineligible); “Killing Eve” (finished); “Ozark” (terminated); “This is us” (concluded)