DEAR MAMA “Until the End of Time” Episode 5 (Airs Friday, May 5). Pictured: Tupac Shakur. CR: FX
ManOfTheCenturyMovie Awards Emmy Predictions 2023: Outstanding Documentary or Non-Fiction Series

Emmy Predictions 2023: Outstanding Documentary or Non-Fiction Series



DEAR MAMA “Until the End of Time” Episode 5 (Airs Friday, May 5). Pictured: Tupac Shakur. CR: FX

We’ll be updating this article throughout the season, along with all of our predictions, so be sure to keep checking IndieWire for the latest news from the 2023 Emmy race. Nomination voting will run June 15-26, with nominees official at the Emmys announced Wednesday, July 12. The Creative Arts Emmy Awards will be presented on two consecutive nights on Saturday, September 9 and Sunday, September 10, with a curated presentation of the ceremonies airing on FXX at a later date. Finally, the 75th Primetime Emmy Awards will take place on Monday, September 18 and will air live on FOX at 8pm ET / 5pm PT.

The state of the breed

‘100 Foot Wave’, ‘The Last Movie Stars’, ‘Harry & Meghan’ – all titles that simultaneously signal a certain gravitas and also represent some of the major players in the Emmy race for best quest documentary or non-fiction series ‘year.

While perhaps only Netflix docuseries about the royal couple who have given up their titles come close to the blockbuster status of past winners in this category like “The Beatles: Get Back” or “The Last Dance,” the field of documentary or non-fiction continued to grow and gain new viewers. For example, FX’s “Dear Mama: The Saga of Afeni and Tupac Shakur” popped up right near the end of the eligibility deadline and was touted as the best documentary made about the late rapper, while simultaneously reintroducing him to audiences who may not have understood its impact and satiated his remaining fan base with a new perspective on his all-too-short life.

While the Documentary Special category is much more focused on cinematic portraits of celebrities, many big contenders here tackle less accessible subjects. PBS may have a smaller-than-usual awards slate this season, but its series “The United States and the Holocaust” by five-time Emmy winner Ken Burns has been showered with praise. “The 1619 Project,” Hulu’s documentary adaptation of the 2019 special issue of The New York Times Magazine addresses the continuing ramifications of chattel slavery in America, but it still became a huge win for the streaming service and the new Disney-owned content company Onyx Collective.

That said, the Emmy race for Best Documentary or Non-Fiction Series was even tougher to top last year, and HBO’s “100 Foot Wave” still managed to snag a nomination. Already back with Season 2, it’s entirely plausible that this could be the year where he really wins.

Current contenders (in alphabetical order):
“100 Foot Wave” (HBO)
“The 1619 Project” (Hulu)
“Boys in Blue” (Showtime)
“Dear Mom: The Saga of Afeni and Tupac Shakur” (FX)
“Ed Sheeran: The Sum of Everything” (Disney+)
“Full Throttle” (Netflix)
“Harry and Meghan” (Netflix)
“The Last Movie Stars” (HBO Max)
“Murdaugh Murders: A Southern Scandal” (Netflix)
“Murf the Surf” (MGM+)
“Prehistoric Planet” (Apple TV+)
“The Secrets of the Elephants” (National Geographic)
“Stolen Youth: Inside the Sarah Lawrence Cult” (Hulu)
“The United States and the Holocaust” (PBS)
“The Vow, Part Two” (HBO)

Other category predictions:
Outstanding animation programme
Outstanding speech series
Outstanding Scripted Variety Series
Outstanding Documentary or Nonfiction Special

To see IndieWire’s full set of predictions for the 75th Emmy Awards click here.

Last year’s winner: “The Beatles: Come Back”
Still eligible: NO.
Hot Series: Disney TV has won this category three years in a row, and the last two years were Disney+ projects. Even if a project by the streaming service doesn’t go through with it, Disney could still count a win for Hulu or National Geographic as its own.
Notable ineligible series: “The New York Times Presents” (individual entries submitted as a documentary or non-fiction special)

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