At the start of the 2023 Cannes Film Festival, Swedish filmmaker Ruben Ostlund told a roomful of reporters he’d rather win his third Palme d’Or than an Oscar. For this year, at least, the previous Cannes winner for “Triangle of Sadness” and “The Square” will have to settle for handing the Palme d’Or to someone else.
As president of this year’s jury for the 76th festival’s Official Competition, Ostlund leads a team of nine writers, directors and actors (as well as two writer-director-actors): fellow Palme d’Or winner Julia Ducournau (“Titane”), Brie Larson, Zambian director Rungano Nyoni, Moroccan director Maryam Touzani, Paul Dano, French actor Denis Ménochet, Afghan director Atiq Rahimi and Argentine director Damián Szifron. The group will spend the festival watching two to three competing films a day, and Ostlund said they will meet to deliberate every three films over the course of the 10-day festival. That process will culminate on Saturday, May 27, when the group will meet for the last time and vote on the winner of the Palme along with awards for acting, writing, directing and a few other categories. The ceremony will take place at 20:30
There is no exact science to predict the Palme d’Or race. Each juror gets one vote, including the chairman, and jurors are asked to closely monitor their reactions to films throughout the festival. In the past, some have abided by this rule better than others, and rumors are rampant either way. The films that receive the most critical support aren’t always the obvious favorites (the acclaimed “Toni Erdmann” lost to the sentimental “I, Daniel Blake” in 2016), even though savage, subversive cinema often substitutes for more traditional storytelling. (just look at “Triangle of Sadness” and “Titane”, the winners of the last two years). It can be all too easy to make assumptions about the jury’s preferences based on your own work. At the same time, for this guessing game, the maniacs of Cannes need all possible clues.
IndieWire’s annual Palme d’Or predictions list only includes odds for films that have already screened at the festival. It’s updated daily as new films are screened, so check back to see the latest odds during the festival.
| Rank | Director | What you should know |
| 1. “The Zone of Interest” | Jonathan Glasser | Glazer’s first film since “Under the Skin” is a tense and gripping look at an Auschwitz commandant (Christian Friedel) and his wife (Sandra Huller) through the unusual lens of their home life. Critics love him and the judging panel will almost certainly appreciate his bold approach. He is a serious contender for Palme as long as some jurors don’t find him too cold. Read our review. |
| 2. “Monster” | Hirokazu Kore-eda | “Shoplifters” director Kore-eda returns with his latest offering for a second Palme in this sentimental look at a child who may or may not be bullied; as his single mother attempts to get to the bottom of it, the film adopts a “Rashomon” perspective that gets deeper as it progresses. Kore-eda’s subtle approach may seem almost too understated to some, but his cinematic confidence (and emotional clarity of his ideas) is undeniable. Read our review. |
| 3. “Youth (Spring)” | Van Bing | Chinese author Wang Bing’s sprawling look at textile workers whose work is shipped around the world provides an intricate depiction of an underrepresented world. (It’s the rare documentary in competition and the first time there for the “Dead Souls” director.) It’s been praised for its sensitive approach, but its glacial pace, rambling style, and daunting 218-minute running time make it less likely find the necessary consensus for La Palma. |
| 4. “Homecoming” | Catherine Corsini | Corsini’s latest French drama (she was last at Cannes with “The Divide” in 2021) has been overshadowed by controversies related to the sex scenes filmed with its underage cast. Putting that aside, the film is a thoughtful and grounded look at two black teenagers who return with their single mother to Corsica and struggle to make sense of their broken family. Despite the excellent performances, the film’s emotional arc is a little too mundane to tap into Palme’s serious potential. |
| 5. “About Dried Grass” | Nuri Bilge Ceylan | Turkish director Ceylan won the Palme for “Winter Sleep” and is a regular at Cannes with his languid and darkly funny character studies that can be a bit of an acquired taste. His Last of Him, a gripping but nonetheless slow look at a disgruntled high school teacher who runs into trouble with one of his admired students, will satisfy many Ceylan fans thanks to its close scrutiny of his nihilistic character’s worldview. But it’s hard to see how a judging panel could converge on this particular cinematic challenge with other strong options. |
